Final Stages and Sad, Bold (and possibly incorrect) Predictions

I have good friend I went to Mizzou with who lives in Colorado.  During school we saw each other almost daily but now the sad reality is is rarely talk.  We see one another once a year or so and follow each other on Facebook.  Its not like it used to be.  Through some good fortune, though, his job in Colorado requires semi-regular travel here to DC and now we get to see each other once every few months.  On his most recent visit we met up with several other alums in DC who also live busy lives that don't intersect with mine as often as any of us would like.  After a great dinner and good conversation I drove my friend home.  He remarked how great the night had been and how, when we're all together, its as if the days we have spent apart don't exist.

Long weeks and busy lives sometimes turn social events into forced situations of endurance.  The people may be good, but the conversation is sometimes forced and awkwardness and fear abound.  What do or don't I talk about.  What do or don't I wear.  What do or don't I bring up in front of others.  Who is judging who and what are their conclusions?  What we remarked about on the ride home that night is that none of these concerns are ever present we the group of us gets together.  Its natural and its easy and everything always feels like it should.  Why?  Because we grew up together, crisscrossing the Mizzou campus getting the formative shared experiences that turned us into the people we are today.

Flash forward to the ASU watch party at Penn Quarter.  Strangers, most of us, outside of the tables at where we set.  Then, right before the game coverage started, a cry throughout the bar...it started with the words "Fight Tiger."  It was all natural, nothing forced.  Groups of people coming together to relive their shared history.

I share this story for two reasons.  First, as a measure of hope.  No matter how conference realignment shakes out, we'll all always have each other and that shared history will cover where ever we're at, be it east, west, south or any and all areas in-between.  Second, I share the story as a measure of sadness.  We share a much lesser but still very real sense of shared history with our Big 12 schools, especially those from the old Big 8 and Big 6.  I remember walking on the field at Nebraska, I remember the tailgate in Iowa State, and I vividly recall one of the worst weekends of my life in Lawrence.  Just like I did with my friends on campus, Mizzou grew up--and watched others grow up--in the Big 6, 8, 12, and now 9.  We've all seen each other at our bests and at our worsts.  While the bond isn't as strong as those I have with my friends, there are bonds there nonetheless.  There might be excitement (or dread) around realignment, but there also has to be an acknowledgement that no matter what happens, something that was once good is being lost forever. 

Also lost forever: the old Big East.  Founding school Syracuse and Pitt are joining the ACC, possibly as early as Sunday tweets Chip Brown of Orangebloods.com.  Gary Parrish of CBS Sportsline and others now confirming ACC vote. 

My blog today was going to be an attempt to get us excited about joining the ACC, but as of now that doesn't look like is happening.  I think the ACC stays capped at 14 schools: Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College Clemson, Duke, FL State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami (unfortunately), North Carolina, NC State, Wake Forest, Virginia, and Va Tech.  Good basketball, good academics, and a football conference with at least one football program that year in and out could challenge for the national championship (FL State).  By adding us (football) and kU basketball, there would be a lot to like about being an ACC member.  But that scenario is all but dead.  

What does look like is happening is OU and Ok State, at minimum, are headed to the Pac 12, now the Pac 14.  Texas has the make the next move: stay or go?  I think they take a look around and realize, its time for them to get off the sinking ship.  I think the Pac 12 becomes the Pac 16 next week. 

The Big East is then down to 7 football schools (TCU joins next year) and.........15 basketball schools.  It took a while to count.  If only there were 5 other conference-less schools who could bring the Big East to 12 football schools and 20 basketball schools.  Oh wait, there are said schools: Baylor, Missouri, Kansas, K-State, and Iowa State.

Our athletic lives are probably going to look like this:
* Big 12 West Division: TCU, Baylor, Missouri, Kansas, K-State, and Iowa State
* Big 12 East Division: West Virginia, USF, Cincy, Louisville, Rutgers, and UConn

Or instead of playing a full season, we could just play West Virginia once a year in November for the conference championship.  Let's just say that if this happens last year's homecoming will be the last time we'll be on Gameday, E-V-E-R.  Basketball would be an actual upgrade, meaning we get our asses handed to us until we hire a real basketball coach. 

You are the company you keep and the company it looks like we are keeping are significantly (1) dumber academically, (2) farther away geographically, (3) and less athletically challenging (at least in football).  All of this adds up to an unfortunate downgrade.  Worst of all?  Dan "Mr. Longhorn" Beebe might still be the conference commish unless he takes a better post in the Texas athletic department.  In other words, the Big 12 is more likely to absorb the 6 Big East schools because of the TV contact that the Big 12 has that appears to be going to survive a total league collapse. 

I think this is by far the most realistic option.  Others on the table include (in most likely order):

(1) The SEC expanding to 14 schools and either taking us or an ACC School (which last week upped their conference exit fee to $20 million dollars, but 7 million from $13).  If they take an ACC school, we could then be up for sliding into that schools spot. 

(2) Texas saying "screw the Pac-14" and staying put.  kU and us then head west.  Quickly.

(3) All of this expansion talk spooking the Big 10 to add two more schools.  Prayers that we would be one of them. 

Summary
This whole process has been filled with ups and downs.  As we approach the finish line Mizzou is unfortunately in a down part of the process.  We'll know more.  Starting Monday.